News pro FX

Dnes začína v Portugalsku fórum ECB. Zúčastnia sa ho Mario Draghi, Mark Carney, Stanley Fisher a Huruhiko Kuroda. Začiatok dnes o 17:30 GMT (19:30 CET) príhovorom prezidenta ECB a následne bude hovoriť Stanley Fisher, viceguvernér Fedu. Zajtra začína konferencia o 10:00 pričom hlavnou témou majú byť inflácia a nezamestnanosť vo vyspelých ekonomikách. Očakávajú sa prejavy viacerých predstaviteľov z MMF, Petra Praeta z ECB (hlavný ekonóm), ako aj napríklad Larryho Summersa (Harvard). Poobede o 13:00 by mal mať prejav Mark Carney, guvernér BoE. Sobota má byť venovaná perspektívam pracovného trhu a produktivity EU v rámci globálneho kontextu. Prejavy by mali mať Draghi, Carney, Kuroda ako aj Fisher... Dnešné stretnutie je podobné ako Jackson Hole v USA a preto môže mať silný vplyv na vývoj menových párov.
(Zdroj: TRIM Broker)

Chystá. Jenže zatím nevím co... Koukal jsem na šrumec u vládních dluhopisů. Velký výprodej...

Taky diky tomu brutalne spadnul Australsky dolar.

Jen doplním, že čínská národní banka oslabila měnu o 1,9%. To oslabení AUDUSD asi bylo kombinací jak posilujícího USD, tak oslabujícího AUD (který je hodně vázaný na Čínu).

PBOC bude mať brífing o juane o 03:00. Pozor na prípadnú volatilitu na celom FX.
(Zdroj: Bloomberg)

Více na forexlive

Ale  kleine Schwester Merkelova si to užije! Myslím ,že až po loket by na toho hošana bylo dost málo ***

"He still might be leaving with few millions in his pocket for the leak."

S tím souhlasím :)

http://www.efxnews.com/story/30111/after-shocks-signals-noise-and-pent-cash-barclays

Xinhua News priniesli informáciu tom, Kim Jong Un prikázal severokórejskej armáde stav najvyššej pohotovosti. Armáda má byť pripravená na prípadnú vojnu... Komentár: Včera si sever a juh vymenili delostrelecké pozdravy. Čo nie je po prvý krát, navyše medzi Severnou a Južnou Kóreou neboli nikdy podpísaný mier a tak sú vo vojnovom stave už 60 rokov. Aby toho nebolo málo, Severná Kórea na rozdiel od Južnej má nukleárnu hlavicu. Hlavné mesto Južnej Kórei Seoul je 35 km od severokórejskej hranice.
(Zdroj: TRIM Broker)

Morgan Stanley zverejnil správu, že jeho klienti začali diskutovať o možnosti obnovenia QE v USA, alebo že FOMC zníži depozitnú sadzbu. Dôvodom je zlý výsledok NFP za mesiac september. Čo je pravdepodobnejšie QE4, alebo záporná depozitná sadzba? Na to MS ešte odpoveď nemá, ale je jasné že lift-off sa odkladá na... neurčito. Táto štúdia bola zverejnená pred cca. 8 hodinami a nesúvisí so súčasným pohybom na trhu.
(Zdroj: TRIM Broker

Je to sice v anglictine , ale hodne zajimavy clanek, ktery ukazuje 10 nejlepsich obchodu banky Credit Suisse's i vcetne vysvetleni.

Credit Suisse is out with its top 10 trades for the coming year. Here are the the trades along with their related rationales and primary risks:

1. Buy USD versus EUR and CHF

Rationale: We expect the impact of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB to increase as 2016 starts. The SNB is likely to remain committed to preventing Swiss franc strength versus the euro even as EURUSD declines.

Trades: Sell EURUSD. Our first target is 1.00. Our technical analysts advocate taking 50% of the risk there, targeting 0.85 on the remainder.

Buy USDCHF six-month 1.08 digital call for maximum potential gain of 6 times the premium paid.

Primary Risk: The impact of negative rates and QE could be dominated by a negative US growth shock. The risk to a digital call is limited to the premium paid.

2. Go long European equities

Rationale: Given our view that the Fed will tighten, the euro depreciate toward parity, and the ECB extend its QE program, we expect that a catch-up in European corporate earnings will allow European equities to outperform US equities.

Trade: We advocate longs in European equities. Our technical analysts? target for the Euro Stoxx 600 is 445, a 17% gain from current levels.

Primary Risk: European equities are potentially vulnerable to weaker growth, no new ECB stimulus, or a resurgence of euro political risk.

3. Sell AUDUSD again

Rationale: The policy divergence stretches well beyond Europe. Our structural expectations for slowing in China and ongoing weakness in Australia's core commodities leave us bearish on the Aussie dollar.

Trade: Buy six-month AUDUSD 0.70 put RKO 0.65. Maximum payout is 14 times the premium paid.

Primary Risk: A rebound in commodities markets would be likely to cause the trade to expire worthless. An accelerated decline in the Aussie dollar could trigger the lower barrier and also leave the structure worthless. The risk to a put RKO is limited to the premium paid.

4. Buy 2-year Germany

Rationale: We expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate in December. This should lead to further rate cuts being priced into the curve.

Trade: Buy 2-year Germany (Schatz future) at -35bp, target -55bp, stop 25bp.

Primary Risk: A hawkish ECB meeting could put a floor under the deposit rate at -20bp.

5. Sell 5-year US Treasuries.

Rationale: Our technical analysts see scope for a range break in US 5-year yields. Trade: Sell 5-year US Treasuries on a break above 1.88%, for 2.33/2.43%.

Primary Risk: Negative carry could generate losses on the position while the Fed is ultra-slow.

6. Overweight European versus US credit

Rationale: Relative monetary policy and the much-lagged stage of the European corporate profit cycle make European credit attractive relative to the US, in our view.

The Trade: We prefer expressing the view in iTraxx1 Main versus IG. Primary Risk: A dovish shift in Fed policy would be likely to cause IG to outperform.

7. Overweight local-currency EM bonds

Rationale: Selected EM markets offer value in a rising US yield environment.

Trade: Go long an equal-weighted basket of EM local currency 5-year bonds (funded in local currency) in India, Russia, and Mexico against paying the same gross dollar value in US 5-year rates, targeting a 100 bp tightening of the EM-US 5-year spread.

Primary Risk: A crisis of confidence could occur in EM.

8. Overweight credit-oriented SP versus Agency MBS

Rationale: We see the pick-up in volatility related to a potential Fed hiking cycle as structurally negative for Agency. Parts of the non-Agency MBS and CMBS markets appear relatively cheap as they have lagged the recent tightening of macro-markets.

Trade: Within RMBS, we favor higher-carry assets. For CMBS, the middle part of the new issue curve is our preferred sector.

Primary Risk: A spike in global macro-volatility could occur.

9. Add a USD rates bear flattener

Rationale: We think that the market is under-pricing the medium-term potential for Fed hikes.

Trade: We recommend a six-month forward 5s30s conditional bear flattener at 86bp and target 20bp of flattening.

Primary Risk: A dovish Fed with rising growth and inflation expectations could cause the curve to bear-steepen.

10. Protect against risk of dollar surge

Rationale: Higher US rates may trigger a new surge in the dollar, dominating other capital flows. EURMXN downside exposure has cheapened EURUSD/USDMXN implied correlation.

Trade: Buy six-month EURUSD 1.02 put, USDMXN 17.15 call dual-digital. The maximum gain on the structure is 6 times the premium paid.

Primary Risk: The dollar could disappoint. The potential losses are limited to the premium paid.

Nebude možné zadávat SL k pozicím? - co to má znamenat?, to jako budou teď všechny pozice bez SL?

To s tym stoplossom je riadna kravina..neverte vsetkym blbostiam

Taky dobre...