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Oil prices rise on bargain hunting ahead of Fed rate decision.

13.06.2023 10:59  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors engaged in bargain hunting, seeking to recover from the previous day’s significant decline. However, the gains were constrained by cautiousness among investors due to upcoming policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Brent crude futures increased by 77 cents, or 1.1%, reaching $72.61 per barrel as of 0640 GMT. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at $67.68 per barrel, marking a gain of 56 cents, or 0.8%.

Oil benchmarks fell around $3 a barrel on Monday due to rising global supplies and demand growth concerns ahead of key inflation data and the Fed’s policy meeting.

Tatsufumi Okoshi, a senior economist at Nomura Securities, mentioned that some investors sought bargains following the previous day’s significant sell-off, while others refrained from taking positions due to speculation that Saudi Arabia might further reduce production.

According to Tatsufumi Okoshi, he believes that oil prices could experience further declines due to China’s struggling economic recovery. He predicts that WTI prices will fluctuate between $62.50 and $75 per barrel during the summer, but primarily remain below $70 per barrel.

The prevailing market consensus suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting. The rate hikes implemented by the Fed in the past have led to a stronger U.S. dollar, which, in turn, has increased the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for holders of other currencies. Consequently, this has weighed on commodity prices.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to raise interest rates by an additional quarter percentage point in an effort to curb persistent inflationary pressures. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which will unveil its plan on Friday, is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Concerns about demand growth in China, the largest crude oil importer globally, were amplified by disappointing economic data released last week. This offset the positive impact on prices resulting from Saudi Arabia’s commitment to further production cuts in July.

Tatsufumi Okoshi of Nomura mentioned that the market is eagerly awaiting demand outlooks from both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which are scheduled to be released later on Tuesday.

National Australia Bank (NAB) analysts expressed their opinion that the recent decline in oil prices enhances the likelihood of Saudi Arabia extending the existing supply cuts beyond July.

Based on this assessment, the possibility of additional supply cuts at the upcoming OPEC meeting is expected to fuel market speculation and contribute to increased volatility in oil prices.

Last week, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to decrease its July oil output by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 9 million bpd. This significant reduction, the largest in years, was implemented with the aim of bolstering oil prices.


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