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Oil rises thanks to debt ceiling development and positive data from China

01.06.2023 11:05  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

Oil prices rose during Asian trading on Thursday, rebounding from a near-month low, while investors were enthusiastic about progress towards averting a U.S. default and signs of life in Chinese industry also brewed some optimism about a recovery in the country’s demand.

Markets were relieved to see the US House of Representatives vote in favour of a bill regarding the debt ceiling suspension, which moved to the Senate for a vote later this week.

Oil markets were also buoyed by a private survey that showed China’s manufacturing sector rose more than expected in May. The reading contrasted with the official survey, which showed that manufacturing activity fell in May, although the difference likely stemmed from a difference in scale between the two surveys.

Today’s data suggested that activity among China’s smaller, private manufacturers is doing better, which could be a harbinger of a broader recovery once the country recovers from the 3-year severe lockdown caused by Covid.

But the survey also showed that the country’s economic growth is still under pressure, which, along with a string of weak data for April, has dampened optimism about China’s oil demand recovery.

The positive signals were somewhat offset by industry data pointing to an unexpected rise in US crude inventories last week, which cooled bets for an improvement in the country’s fuel demand.

Brent crude futures rose to $73.09 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose to $68.50.

Fears of slowing demand in China, coupled with pressure from a stronger dollar, drove down oil prices on Wednesday while pushing both major contracts to 4-week lows.

On Thursday, however, the dollar weakened from 10-week highs after some Fed officials touted a potential pause in rate hikes during the central bank’s June meeting to capitalize about the recent year’s tightening of monetary policy.

Currently, the focus is mainly on the May Nonfarm Payrolls data, which is expected to provide further signals regarding monetary policy. Fears of higher and longer US interest rates weighed on oil prices until late last month.

Uncertainty over further production cuts by OPEC also kept oil markets on edge ahead of the cartel participants‘ meeting. Ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia offered differing views on future production cuts.

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