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Oil rises after OPEC+ maintains output curbs, but uncertain demand curbs gains

05.10.2023 10:55  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

On Thursday, oil prices saw a slight increase, recovering a portion of the significant losses from the previous session. This came as an OPEC+ panel decided to uphold oil output reductions in order to maintain a constrained supply. However, gains were limited due to uncertainty surrounding the demand outlook.

The price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 55 cents, reaching $86.36 per barrel at 0640 GMT. Simultaneously, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also rose by 55 cents, reaching $84.77.

Oil prices experienced a decline of over $5 on Wednesday, with the focus shifting towards a gloomier macroeconomic outlook and concerns about decreased fuel demand. This followed a meeting of an OPEC+ panel, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia.

The OPEC+ ministerial panel decided to maintain their existing oil output policy, with Saudi Arabia committing to extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2023. Similarly, Russia will continue its voluntary export curb of 300,000 bpd until the end of December.

“We continue to see the market in deficit through the fourth quarter and the softer prices reduce the probability OPEC will ease supply constraints,” said National Australia Bank analysts in a note.

Unfortunately, there’s potential downside news for the euro zone economy. A survey suggests that the economy likely contracted in the last quarter. This survey also revealed that demand experienced its sharpest decline in nearly three years in September. This decline was attributed to consumers cutting back on spending due to increased borrowing costs and rising prices.

Recent data highlights a significant drop in U.S. gasoline demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that finished motor gasoline supplied, which serves as a proxy for demand, reached its lowest point of about 8 million barrels per day (bpd) last week. This marks the lowest level since the beginning of the year.

“The three-month rally in crude oil prices has been riding on the narrative of tighter supply dynamics and resilient global economic conditions, so there is some discomfort for the bulls lately when the tailwinds were not as prominent as before,” said a market strategist at IG, Yeap Jun Rong.

Oil prices are expected to face challenges in their attempts to rise further. These challenges stem from a more uncertain demand outlook, coupled with the release of weaker U.S. economic data on Wednesday and a notable increase in gasoline inventories.

In September, the U.S. services sector experienced a slowdown, with new orders dropping to their lowest level in nine months. However, the overall pace of activity remained in line with expectations for robust economic growth in the third quarter.

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