Pozeram ze dnes pride aj dost dat z USA mohli by byt zaujimvave pohyby.

Do shortu bych se netlačil. Technika je příšerná... Spíš ten Inside bar vidím jako signál k longu (H1). Pod tím dvojitým dnem byly objednávky. Uvidíme, jsem mimo.

Denní svíčka vypadá líp. A na USD/CHF ještě líp...

A jsme tam, hotovo.

U.S. Dollar Rallies Ahead Of NFP – Will Jobs Report Beat?

The rally in stocks, the rise in Treasury yields and the demand for U.S. dollars tell us that investors anticipate a strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The consensus forecast is 870,000 jobs, which would be the strongest increase since August, while the whisper number is 1 million. On Wednesday, investors were caught off guard by the weak ADP private payroll number, but since then their worries have been eased by other data sets. This morning, for example, we learned that jobless claims fell to a three-week low as continuing claims dropped to pre-pandemic lows. July was a strong month for the U.S. economy, with increased spending on leisure activities, like travel and restaurants. With businesses across the nation hiring, the jobs report should be good.

Every month we also track a few economic reports that can have strong predictive capabilities for non-farm payrolls, and nearly all point to a stronger jobs report in July compared with June. Service sector ISM hit a record high, with the employment component returning to expansion. Challenger reported the fewest job cuts in 21 years, while consumer confidence hit a pandemic high, according to Conference Board, with jobless claims and continuing claims moving lower. The only outlier was ADP, but this index has deviated from NFPs more than usual in recent months. The sluggish increase can also be a reflection of labor shortage in the private sector.

Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls

• Employment component of ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 53.8 from 49.3
• Employment component of ISM Manufacturing rises to 52.9 from 49.9
• Challenger job cuts drop to 21-year low
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 85.5
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hits pandemic high
• Jobless Claims 4-Week Average falls slightly to 394,500 from 397,000
• Continuing Claims fall to pre-pandemic lows

Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls

• ADP drops to 330,000 from 680,000

If non-farm payrolls exceeds last month’s 850,000 increase and the unemployment drops from 5.9%, as expected, and earnings growth holds steady or rises, USD/JPY will hit 110 and EUR/USD will drop below 1.18. The larger the increase, the stronger the move for the U.S. dollar. If payrolls rise by less than 800,000 and the unemployment rate or earnings growth falls short as well, we expect a modest sell-off in the U.S. dollar. A steep decline would happen if job growth is less than 600,000.

Zdroj Kathy Lien BK Asset Management.

Tak kam dále?

Díky tomu co se událo přes víkend (gap  a pokles na mnoha trzích) čekám sbírání se ze země a korekci výše nad 1,1780.

Zatím support držíme, ale pozor na dnešní data z americké inflace ve 14:30, mohlo by se to pořádně pohnout.

Vypadá to, že se dolar šteluje k oslabování.

Ja som sa dnes hodil malym objemom short. Longy som pozatvaral uz vcera.

Tato situace není nic pro mne.

Vypadá to, že ti to klapne. Nebyl potvrzen včerejší směr na žádném měn. páru co sleduju.

EUR/USD - trendovka zo spodu v konfluencii so supportom ... pre mňa sám o sebe obchodný signál 

zároveň korelačný USD/CHF v oblasti rezistencie .... 

Rovnako dolarový index v oblasti rezistencie a po peknej červenej sviečke ktorá by mohla naznačovať oslabovanie doláru. 

Pre mňa je to presne kombinácia týchto inštrumentov a ich vzájomné vzťahy a vazby ... čo mi pri obchodovaní na forexe dáva najviac zmysel. Nie je to recept na 100% ziskové obchody. Ale dokladne vybrané obchody majú vysokú šancu na úspech. Aspoň zatial tie moje majú vysokú úspešnost. 

A máme tady obrat trendu.

Sme stale pod Kijun-Sen, prave teraz casto prichadza k odrazom. Slabomodra linka. 

Navyse data z US boli velmi dobre minuly tyzden, nechce sa mi verit ze by Euro slo nahor. Osobne to beriem skor ako korekciu zatial. Uvidime kam sa to pohne tento tyzden. Graf je D1.