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Oil rises as market awaits Fed rate outlook

14.06.2023 11:33  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

On Wednesday, oil prices experienced a slight upward movement while investors eagerly anticipated the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting. Additionally, they were keeping a close eye on important economic data from China and the latest government reports concerning U.S. crude stockpiles.

At 0610 GMT, Brent crude futures demonstrated a 0.4% increase of 32 cents, reaching $74.61 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at $69.64 per barrel, showing a 0.3% rise of 22 cents.

On Tuesday, both benchmarks experienced a significant climb of over 3%. This surge was driven by optimistic expectations of increased fuel demand, following China’s central bank’s decision to reduce a short-term lending rate.

Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore, noted, „It seems that the short-term hot monies (speculators) are hesitant to bid prices higher due to impending key data and events such as China’s industrial production, retail sales, and the housing price index for May due tomorrow, as well as today FOMC’s latest dot-plot projections“.

Market participants anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. central bank will put a pause on rate hikes due to uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the lingering impacts of the ten rate hikes implemented since March 2022.

Rate hikes strengthen the dollar, making commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and putting downward pressure on oil prices. A pause in hikes would stimulate economic growth, increase oil demand, and support prices.

Economists anticipate that the Bank of Canada will implement another interest rate hike in July, bringing it to 5.00%, following a surprising 25 basis point increase that took place last week.

The European Central Bank is likely to raise rates to curb inflation, while the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its loose policy.

According to market sources referencing figures from the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude oil stocks increased by approximately 1 million barrels in the week ending June 9. This contradicted the average estimate from Reuters analysts, who had anticipated a 500,000 barrel decline.

Later today, we can expect the release of government data regarding stockpiles. This data will provide further insights into the current inventory levels of crude oil.

OPEC+ has granted Russia a slightly higher oil production baseline, allowing them to produce more under the latest quotas.


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